House prices 'ready to rise', The Australian, 15 June, 2009.
House prices `ready to rise'
Condon, Turi. The Australian [Canberra, A.C.T] 15 June 2009: 3.
Abstract
THE nation's sluggish housing market may not be in the doldrums for too much longer, with industry forecasts suggesting a sharp rise in property prices over the next three years.
Full Text
THE nation's sluggish housing market may not be in the doldrums for too much longer, with industry forecasts suggesting a sharp rise in property prices over the next three years.
House prices in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide are expected to lead the way, with each market tipped to grow by up to 19per cent by 2012, according to new research by economic analysts BIS Shrapnel.
Even Brisbane's slow market is set to rebound, as overseas and interstate migration are forecast to push prices up 16 per cent over the next three years.
The positive outlook was reinforced by the weekend's auction clearance rates, which hit 52-week highs in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.
However, the national housing rebound won't be immediate. The BIS Shrapnel research suggests much of the price growth will come in the 2011-2012 financial year as the economy recovers and unemployment falls.
"From here, the recovery in housing demand is expected to broaden and deepen," according to BIS Shrapnel senior project manager Angie Zigomanis.
"By the end of 2009, strong turnover of the most affordable properties will be flowing through into the bulk of households positioned towards the middle of themarket, as people who have sold their existing dwellings to first-home buyers upgrade to their next home.
"Housing affordability in both Sydney and Melbourne is at its best for 10 years."
Sydney agent Ric Serrao from Raine and Horne, said the recovery was across the board. "As agents we're all thinking, `What the hell just happened?' It just went bang. The investors are bouncing back, buyers who were sitting on their hands are attending inspections."
Sydney's weekend's auction clearance rate spiked 10 percentage points from the previous weekend to 74 per cent, 29 points higher than the same weekend in 2008. Melbourne's clearance rate was 81 per cent, up 13 points on the previous weekend and 23 points higher than last year.
The clearance rate in Brisbane exceeded 50 per cent for the first time this year. At 68 per cent, it was 21 points higher than the previous weekend and 40 points higher than last year.
BOUNCE BACK
Percentage growth in median house price
AAA = State
BBB = Median house price as at June 2009 Estimate
CCC = Median house price as at June 2012 Forecast
DDD = Forecast gain in the median house price 2009-2012 (%)
AAA ........... BBB .......... CCC .......... DDD
Sydney ....... $530,000 .... $630,000 ... 19
Melbourne ... $425,000 .... $507,000 ... 19
Brisbane ..... $391,000 .... $455,000 ... 16
Adelaide ...... $360,000 ... $430,000 .... 19
Perth .......... $425,000 .... $475,000 ... 12
Hobart ......... $335,000 ... $385,000 .... 15
Darwin ........ $470,000 .... $520,000 ... 11
Canberra ..... $440,000 .... $515,000 ... 17
Source: BIS Shrapnel's Residential Property Prospects, 2009-2012 report
Credit: Turi Condon, Sanna Trad, Additional reporting: John Stapleton